Wednesday, December 29, 2010

4 Random Predictions For 2011

This is the week for predictions for the future, so I'll give you mine for 2011. These are rather random in that they're not all directly about music or production, but they are related in some way. Here we go.

1) The end of the mechanical magnetic hard drive. I believe that 2011 will be the tipping point for the decline of the hard drive. In 2010 we saw most computer manufacturers offer solid state drives as options, but what's most telling is the fact that both internal and external hard drive prices are dropping like a rock (you can get a 2G drive for less than 80 bucks right now), which means that the drive manufacturers can see the writing on the wall. Just watch what happens in the new year as people discover the beauty of solid state memory.

2) The tablet really takes off and becomes the predominant computing device. And speaking of solid state memory, I think the time has come for the whole idea of a tablet as a computer. You know what convinced me? I was watching an episode of vintage Captain Picard Star Trek Next Generation the other night, and tablets played a big, yet subtle role. Everyone had one, they pass them back and forth to each other, and it's such a natural thing to have and use. So many of the most useful gadgets start out as elements of science fiction only to become reality when the technology catches up. Guess what, in the case of the tablet, it finally has. Watch as we leave our laptops behind.

3) The connected TV will gain traction. I know, it's not looking too good right now, with Samsung's Google television looking like a bust and Apple TV selling well but not setting any records. But hear me out on this. The state of the cable set-top box is still seated so far in the 1990's that I'm honestly surprised that cable subscribers aren't rioting with pitchforks and Molotov cocktails outside the company headquarters. I'm on my fourth piece-of-crap box from "Un-Scientific Atlanta" that works so badly that they should be ashamed to even have it on the market. And the cable companies still treat any kind of interactivity as if it was some sort of science fiction. Wait a minute - it was - in 1979!! Believe me, people want their TV's to be connected. Just don't wait on the cable companies to figure it out though (that's a sure recipe for disaster). In 2011, someone (probably Apple) finally will.

4) 3D will have a big impact on the music business. Wait, I can't believe I'm saying that. Up until yesterday I was firmly convinced that 3D was surround sound all over again; basically a parlor trick that would never make it, at least until you didn't need glasses to view it. Yesterday I had my mind opened up, blown, and to put it bluntly, totally changed (how often does that happen?). The whole trick with 3D is that it has to be done technically well (something that doesn't occur that often, it turns out), and the production and post-production methods have to have a totally different approach. Yes, I've seen the future and I'll report more in depth on it as the new year dawns next week.
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3 comments:

Gian Nicola Beraldo said...

Hi Bobby,
great, I was thinkin about a new netbook and.. ok I'll take a tablet :-) I am very curious about 3D, what have you seen so amazing? I thought 3D was just a way to earn some money from a market in free fall.. (I hope I am clear enough)
Thank You!
Gian Nicola

ilter said...

I'm curious about 3D as well... what particular video/movie has made you so much convinced, I wonder.
And about SSDs... well, I don't see myself upgrading my music recording drive to an SSD anytime soon. At least not in 2011.

Bobby Owsinski said...

I'll post on this shortly, but a well 3D director on the cutting edge showed me some examples of 3D done well. Apparently, most of what's available is pretty haphazard, but it's a different animal when you see the real thing.

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