OK, that didn't mean much to me either, but the site does have a few interesting tidbits. After analyzing hits on the UK charts over the last 50 years, they have determined:
1) In early decades, hits tended to be harmonically simpler than non-hits. However, nowadays the opposite is true.
2) Around 1980 seems to be a creative period in pop music.
3) Dance songs were more popular in the 1980s.
4) Music of all qualities are getting louder.
That last one seems to be stating the obvious. I'm not sure that I agree with first three.
The site, called scoreahit.com, has a section on Expected Hits (Gnarls Barkley's "Crazy"), Unexpected Hits (Alicia Key's "Empire State Of Mind"), Hidden Gems (Sheryl Crow's "First Cut Is The Deepest"), and they even go as far as to make predictions on current songs.
If you ask me, this is fools gold. Even if it were possible to predict a hit, it still is working with last week's (month's, year's, decade's) data. By the time you determine what works, the public (fickle as we are) has moved on. The only thing different between using math to predict a hit and the record labels following jumping on a trend is the time lag. You can only follow a trend, you can't make one this way.
Check scoreahit.com out and let me know what you think. Have a great holiday.!
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